Buenos Aires, January 2026 – The monetary authority warned that the ongoing disinflation process faces a series of 'seasonal and transitory' risks during the first quarter of the year, mainly linked to adjustments in regulated prices and the methodological impact of implementing the new Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The central bank indicated that the demand for pesos is likely to strengthen and that external financing conditions could improve, driven by a record fine harvest, good prospects for the coarse harvest, and an increase in exports of hydrocarbons and minerals, in a context of maturation of projects linked to the regime of incentives for large investments.
However, it clarified that the accumulation of reserves, estimated at a floor of 10 billion dollars for the year, will depend largely on the Treasury's access to international markets to refinance external debt maturities.
According to private estimates, if this scheme had been in effect last year, annual inflation would have been between 2.5 and 3 percentage points higher than the official figure.
Despite this transition scenario and methodological uncertainty, the Central Bank maintained that it does not see structural risks to the continuity of the disinflationary process. The entity emphasized that once temporary pressures are overcome and the changes from the new index are internalized, inflation should resume and deepen its downward path.
The agency reaffirmed that it will maintain a contractionary bias of monetary policy and trusts in greater exchange rate stability, factors that, combined with a reduction in inflationary inertia—visible, for example, in more moderate wage agreements—would allow a more marked deceleration of the economy's nominality from the second quarter.
In line with this, the report highlighted that high-frequency inflation indicators, especially those linked to non-seasonal foods, already show a moderation of price pressures in the first weeks of January.
Under the leadership of Santiago Bausili, the Central Bank also expressed optimism regarding the evolution of international reserves. According to expectations gathered by the Central Bank itself, foreign trade would close the year with a surplus of over 10 billion dollars, with growth in both exports and imports.
Regarding the demand for money, the report projected a remonetization close to 0.6% of the Gross Domestic Product during 2026, although it clarified that in the first quarter this advance would be limited, around 0.1% of GDP, in line with the prudence that characterizes the current monetary approach.
Separately, the report also focuses on the change in CPI weightings that the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses will begin to apply. With the new basket, based on 2017/2018 census data, services gain greater relative weight—particularly housing and tariffs, which now represent 14.5%, and transportation, with 14.3%—while the incidence of food and beverages is reduced.
